Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VMI +210 MER -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +22 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -0.8 (-21.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -3.4 (-18.6) | 139.2 (+10.8) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -3.8 (-18.2) | 138.1 (+11.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -2.8 (-19.2) | 137.7 (+12.3) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -2.7 (-19.3) | 138.3 (+11.7) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 4-10 | 10-6 |
| Away | 0-15 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L13 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 84.9 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#323) | -4.9 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.10 (#362) | -0.43 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.43 (#362) | -1.03 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.349 (#358) | 0.466 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.53 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 16.6% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 33.5% |
Game Analysis
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