Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MER -380 VMI +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VMI +9 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -6.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -3.2 (-12.2) | 151.6 (-0.6) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -5.0 (-14.0) | 151.7 (-0.7) | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -4.0 (-13.0) | 148.3 (+2.7) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -4.2 (-13.2) | 149.5 (+1.5) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MER 86 – 64 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 75.5 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#249) | -8.0 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.74 (#238) | -1.30 (#291) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#254) | -1.30 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.453 (#264) | 0.447 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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