Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MER -2400 VMI +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +14 | 176 | Won |
| Massey | MER -22.7 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -16.9 (-2.9) | 151.8 (+24.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -16.0 (-2.0) | 151.4 (+24.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -16.3 (-2.3) | 150.4 (+25.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -17.6 (-3.6) | 151.0 (+25.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MER 86 – 64 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 1-17 |
| Home | 14-1 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-11 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L17 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.8 | 83.2 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#132) | -17.2 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#130) | -2.86 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#138) | -3.56 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#87) | 0.374 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 60.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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