Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | VMI +360 MER -470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VMI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -13.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -11.3 (+1.3) | 151.0 (-7.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -10.6 (+0.6) | 150.2 (-6.2) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -12.6 (+2.6) | 149.3 (-5.3) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -11.8 (+1.8) | 150.4 (-6.4) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MER 90 – 69 VMI |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MER 86 – 64 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 1-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.2 | 77.8 |
| Massey | -14.4 (#349) | 2.6 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.25 (#335) | 0.31 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#331) | 0.32 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#330) | 0.536 (#103) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VMI | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 24.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 61.7% | 64.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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