Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | MER -1000 VMI +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +21 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | MER -15.1 (+5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -11.5 (+9.5) | 143.6 (+15.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -11.6 (+9.4) | 143.5 (+15.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MER -10.9 (+10.1) | 142.0 (+17.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MER -10.9 (+10.1) | 142.1 (+16.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | MER 95 – 81 VMI |
| Jan 15, 2026 | MER 77 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 15, 2025 | VMI 80 – 71 MER |
| Jan 4, 2025 | MER 70 – 67 VMI |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MER 86 – 64 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 4-9 | 0-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 84.9 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#241) | -15.5 (#355) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#257) | -3.34 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#271) | -3.85 (#355) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#243) | 0.379 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.3% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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