Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +210 MRSH -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -6.6 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.9 (+18.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -4.9 (-3.1) | 138.1 (+15.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -5.4 (-2.6) | 136.1 (+17.9) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -5.8 (-2.2) | 137.6 (+16.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -5.6 (-2.4) | 137.7 (+16.3) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | TXST 72 – 68 MRSH |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MRSH 77 – 71 TXST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MRSH 79 – 75 TXST |
| Mar 4, 2023 | TXST 71 – 68 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 24-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 13-5 |
| Home | 4-10 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#202) | 9.1 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#193) | 1.05 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#202) | 1.53 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#221) | 0.561 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 14.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.66 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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