Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -120 TXST +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | TXST -0.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -0.2 (+5.8) | 139.9 (+8.1) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -0.5 (+6.5) | 140.6 (+7.4) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -0.9 (+6.9) | 141.8 (+6.2) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -0.3 (+6.3) | 140.6 (+7.4) | 47% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | TXST 72 – 68 MRSH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MRSH 79 – 75 TXST |
| Mar 4, 2023 | TXST 71 – 68 MRSH |
| Jan 20, 2023 | MRSH 81 – 73 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#221) | 1.6 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#259) | 0.26 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#255) | 0.11 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#291) | 0.521 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.7% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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