Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -10.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -7.5 (-10.5) | 146.5 (-7.5) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -6.3 (-9.3) | 144.5 (-5.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -8.0 (-11.0) | 146.2 (-7.2) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -8.0 (-11.0) | 146.6 (-7.6) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | TXST 72 – 68 MRSH |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MRSH 77 – 71 TXST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MRSH 79 – 75 TXST |
| Jan 20, 2023 | MRSH 81 – 73 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-8 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-2 | 4-10 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 8.5 (#66) | -1.4 (#201) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#81) | -0.31 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#74) | -0.36 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.577 (#48) | 0.477 (#228) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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