Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +125 MRSH -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +4 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | TXST -3.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXST -0.9 (-4.9) | 136.1 (+17.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXST -0.9 (-4.9) | 132.5 (+21.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TXST -0.3 (-4.3) | 133.8 (+20.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXST -0.6 (-4.6) | 137.9 (+16.1) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | TXST 72 – 68 MRSH |
| Jan 3, 2025 | MRSH 77 – 71 TXST |
| Mar 4, 2023 | TXST 71 – 68 MRSH |
| Jan 20, 2023 | MRSH 81 – 73 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#233) | -2.2 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#234) | -0.26 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#226) | -0.21 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#160) | 0.489 (#189) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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