Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TXST +154 MRSH -185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXST +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -7.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (-9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -5.9 (+9.9) | 145.3 (-5.3) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -6.4 (+10.4) | 144.3 (-4.3) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -5.9 (+9.9) | 146.8 (-6.8) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -6.4 (+10.4) | 146.1 (-6.1) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2025 | MRSH 77 – 71 TXST |
| Jan 6, 2024 | MRSH 79 – 75 TXST |
| Mar 4, 2023 | TXST 71 – 68 MRSH |
| Jan 20, 2023 | MRSH 81 – 73 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#299) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#244) | 0.43 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.33 (#253) | 0.28 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#288) | 0.542 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 38.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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