Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MD -154 MICH +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +6 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | MD -5.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (-20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -4.6 (+1.4) | 143.0 (-21.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -4.7 (+1.3) | 140.5 (-18.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -4.7 (+1.3) | 143.0 (-21.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -4.7 (+1.3) | 141.7 (-19.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | MICH 101 – 83 MD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 81 – 80 MD |
| Mar 5, 2025 | MD 71 – 65 MICH |
| Jan 12, 2024 | MD 64 – 57 MICH |
| Jan 1, 2023 | MICH 81 – 46 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#47) | 8.1 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#53) | 1.23 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#53) | 2.07 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#44) | 0.554 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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