Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | MD -200 MICH +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +1 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -4.8 (-5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -4.2 (-5.2) | 143.9 (+17.1) | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.5 (-4.5) | 144.7 (+16.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -3.7 (-4.7) | 144.1 (+16.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MD -4.6 (-5.6) | 143.7 (+17.3) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | MICH 101 – 83 MD |
| Mar 5, 2025 | MD 71 – 65 MICH |
| Jan 12, 2024 | MD 64 – 57 MICH |
| Jan 20, 2023 | MD 64 – 58 MICH |
| Jan 1, 2023 | MICH 81 – 46 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 17-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 20.5 (#9) | 15.8 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#18) | 2.79 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.03 (#11) | 3.54 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#22) | 0.606 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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