Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MD -250 MICH +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +7 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | MD -2.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.4 (-23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -2.0 (+5.0) | 141.2 (-20.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.3 (+3.7) | 141.9 (-20.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -2.0 (+5.0) | 142.8 (-21.8) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -1.7 (+5.3) | 142.0 (-21.0) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | MICH 101 – 83 MD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 81 – 80 MD |
| Mar 5, 2025 | MD 71 – 65 MICH |
| Jan 20, 2023 | MD 64 – 58 MICH |
| Jan 1, 2023 | MICH 81 – 46 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 3-17 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#98) | 6.8 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.24 (#160) | 0.38 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#144) | 0.99 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#177) | 0.554 (#90) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.4% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 55.8% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 32.2% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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