Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | MD +1200 MICH -2400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +18 | 184 | Lost |
| Massey | MICH -29.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -11.8 (-6.2) | 149.0 (+35.0) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -8.9 (-9.1) | 156.6 (+27.4) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -18.3 (+0.3) | 155.2 (+28.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -16.7 (-1.3) | 149.0 (+35.0) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 81 – 80 MD |
| Mar 5, 2025 | MD 71 – 65 MICH |
| Jan 12, 2024 | MD 64 – 57 MICH |
| Jan 20, 2023 | MD 64 – 58 MICH |
| Jan 1, 2023 | MICH 81 – 46 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 37-3 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 19-1 |
| Home | 7-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 12-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 87.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#181) | 32.6 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.74 (#123) | 5.02 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#131) | 8.18 (#4) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#151) | 0.753 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | MICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 46.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 60.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 39.4% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 40.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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