Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -115 MD -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +35 | 127 | Won |
| Massey | MD -2.8 (+37.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -0.9 (+35.9) | 141.3 (-14.3) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -1.1 (+36.1) | 143.6 (-16.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -1.0 (+36.0) | 144.5 (-17.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -1.0 (+36.0) | 141.7 (-14.7) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 14, 2025 | MICH 101 – 83 MD |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MICH 81 – 80 MD |
| Mar 5, 2025 | MD 71 – 65 MICH |
| Jan 12, 2024 | MD 64 – 57 MICH |
| Jan 20, 2023 | MD 64 – 58 MICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#97) | 11.9 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#117) | 2.33 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#85) | 3.10 (#26) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#140) | 0.607 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 24.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 43.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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