Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO -250 UTM +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +20 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | SEMO -7.4 (-27.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -4.4 (-24.4) | 158.7 (-18.7) | 70% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -4.6 (-24.6) | 156.7 (-16.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -5.1 (-25.1) | 154.6 (-14.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -5.1 (-25.1) | 155.7 (-15.7) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SEMO 56 – 53 UTM |
| Jan 21, 2026 | SEMO 66 – 50 UTM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SEMO 90 – 79 UTM |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTM 66 – 63 SEMO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTM 82 – 72 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-4 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#230) | -6.4 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#223) | -0.93 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.73 (#229) | -1.44 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#204) | 0.444 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.8% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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