Virgil Cain is my name and I served on the Danville train. "The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down"-The Band
Ohio Valley Conference · Kathleen and Tom Elam Center · January 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread UTM -2.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Under
Money UTM -140 / SEMO +120
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTM win
Actual UTM +3 129 Won
Massey UTM -3.0 (+0.0)
Massey Totals 138.6 (-9.6)
Bradley-Terry 47%
Weighted B-T 44%
Efficiency Plus ML UTM -3.0 (-0.0) 141.2 (-12.2) 70%
Baseline Tuned ML UTM -1.2 (+1.8) 138.5 (-9.5) 59%
Baseline ML UTM -0.8 (+2.2) 139.0 (-10.0) 61%
Baseline Plus ML UTM -0.9 (+2.1) 140.2 (-11.2) 58%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 18, 2026 SEMO 5653 UTM
Jan 21, 2026 SEMO 6650 UTM
Jan 31, 2025 SEMO 9079 UTM
Feb 24, 2024 UTM 8272 SEMO
Jan 26, 2024 UTM 8458 SEMO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTM SEMO
Overall 14-19 21-12
Conference 9-11 15-5
Home 8-5 12-3
Away 5-12 8-7
Neutral 1-2 1-2
Last 5 1-4 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.2 72.3
Avg Pts Against 73.2 69.3
Massey -4.9 (#254) -3.8 (#231)
Bradley-Terry -1.62 (#307) -0.75 (#241)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.03 (#299) -0.93 (#234)
RPI 0.409 (#325) 0.467 (#232)
Shooting & Four Factors UTM SEMO
FG% 37.4% 43.6%
3PT% 28.7% 33.2%
REB / G 39.2 32.7
OREB / G 12.9 8.2
AST / TO 0.80 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.4% 49.6%
TOV% 19.5% 16.0%
ORB% 31.8% 23.0%
FT Rate 20.5% 18.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.2% 48.7%
Opp TOV% 17.3% 17.8%
DRB% 69.5% 69.4%
Opp FT Rate 21.2% 31.8%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.