Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -140 SEMO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -3.0 (+0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -0.9 (+2.1) | 140.2 (-11.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -3.0 (-0.0) | 141.2 (-12.2) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -1.2 (+1.8) | 138.5 (-9.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -0.8 (+2.2) | 139.0 (-10.0) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SEMO 56 – 53 UTM |
| Jan 21, 2026 | SEMO 66 – 50 UTM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SEMO 90 – 79 UTM |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTM 82 – 72 SEMO |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UTM 84 – 58 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 5-12 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#254) | -3.8 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#307) | -0.75 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.03 (#299) | -0.93 (#234) |
| RPI | 0.409 (#325) | 0.467 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.4% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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