Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO -142 UTM +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +16 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -1.2 (+17.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (-25.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -0.4 (+15.6) | 134.2 (-18.2) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -3.1 (+19.1) | 135.8 (-19.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -2.3 (+18.3) | 136.3 (-20.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -1.5 (+17.5) | 137.2 (-21.2) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SEMO 56 – 53 UTM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SEMO 90 – 79 UTM |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTM 66 – 63 SEMO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTM 82 – 72 SEMO |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UTM 84 – 58 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 12-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#253) | -1.0 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#284) | 0.49 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#283) | 0.12 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#288) | 0.513 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 38.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.5% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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