Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -600 SEMO +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +26 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -14.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (-17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -10.7 (+15.3) | 153.4 (-11.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -9.7 (+16.3) | 154.0 (-12.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -10.6 (+15.4) | 149.2 (-7.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -10.4 (+15.6) | 149.9 (-7.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SEMO 56 – 53 UTM |
| Jan 21, 2026 | SEMO 66 – 50 UTM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SEMO 90 – 79 UTM |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTM 66 – 63 SEMO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTM 82 – 72 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 64.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#257) | -15.5 (#356) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#238) | -2.31 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.82 (#240) | -3.14 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#226) | 0.375 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 32.8% |
Game Analysis
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