Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | SEMO +275 UTM -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +10 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -9.6 (-0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -9.0 (-1.0) | 155.6 (-1.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -8.4 (-1.6) | 153.7 (+0.3) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -7.8 (-2.2) | 152.4 (+1.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -8.3 (-1.7) | 153.6 (+0.4) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SEMO 56 – 53 UTM |
| Jan 21, 2026 | SEMO 66 – 50 UTM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SEMO 90 – 79 UTM |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTM 66 – 63 SEMO |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UTM 84 – 58 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 1-14 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.5 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 77.9 |
| Massey | -15.5 (#353) | -2.6 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#355) | -0.02 (#172) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.28 (#350) | -0.28 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#352) | 0.510 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 13.1% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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