Betting Lines
| Spread | SEMO -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SEMO -165 UTM +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEMO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +11 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | SEMO -5.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEMO -4.4 (+6.6) | 141.5 (+27.5) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEMO -2.7 (+8.3) | 146.2 (+22.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEMO -4.5 (+6.5) | 141.5 (+27.5) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEMO -4.2 (+6.8) | 141.9 (+27.1) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | SEMO 56 – 53 UTM |
| Jan 21, 2026 | SEMO 66 – 50 UTM |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTM 66 – 63 SEMO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTM 82 – 72 SEMO |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UTM 84 – 58 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEMO | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 9-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-5 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#231) | -6.6 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#256) | -1.55 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.29 (#259) | -2.00 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#237) | 0.433 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEMO | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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