Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -155 SEMO +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEMO +3 | 109 | Lost |
| Massey | UTM -5.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-28.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -4.5 (-7.5) | 133.9 (-24.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -4.4 (-7.4) | 132.8 (-23.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -4.0 (-7.0) | 132.1 (-23.1) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -4.3 (-7.3) | 133.7 (-24.7) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | SEMO 66 – 50 UTM |
| Jan 31, 2025 | SEMO 90 – 79 UTM |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UTM 66 – 63 SEMO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTM 82 – 72 SEMO |
| Jan 26, 2024 | UTM 84 – 58 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#189) | -4.0 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#155) | -0.64 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#174) | -0.97 (#236) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#135) | 0.500 (#181) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 38.0% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 27.8% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 34.4% |
Game Analysis
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