Betting Lines
| Spread | KC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Over |
| Money | UND +130 KC -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +17 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | KC -2.2 (+19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -2.6 (+19.6) | 129.7 (+7.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KC -4.1 (+21.1) | 131.7 (+5.3) | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -2.4 (+19.4) | 130.7 (+6.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KC -2.8 (+19.8) | 131.4 (+5.6) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UND 85 – 70 KC |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UND 81 – 79 KC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | KC 80 – 69 UND |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UND 76 – 72 KC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | KC 65 – 47 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 63.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#318) | -2.8 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#327) | -0.66 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#315) | -0.74 (#230) |
| RPI | 0.394 (#340) | 0.475 (#222) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 39.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 27.7% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 44.0% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 29.2% |
Game Analysis
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