Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UND -145 KC +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UND -0.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KC -0.7 (+4.7) | 141.5 (+6.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -0.5 (+3.5) | 141.4 (+6.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KC -0.6 (+4.6) | 142.4 (+5.6) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | KC -0.5 (+4.5) | 143.3 (+4.7) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UND 85 – 70 KC |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UND 81 – 79 KC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | KC 80 – 69 UND |
| Feb 10, 2024 | KC 65 – 47 UND |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UND 82 – 69 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 4-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-12 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -7.1 (#281) | -3.5 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.44 (#300) | -0.93 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.90 (#303) | -1.05 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.403 (#330) | 0.456 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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