Betting Lines
| Spread | UND -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | UND -550 KC +410 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UND +15 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UND -10.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UND -10.3 (+4.7) | 148.8 (+6.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UND -8.5 (+6.5) | 148.2 (+6.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UND -10.4 (+4.6) | 145.5 (+9.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UND -10.0 (+5.0) | 147.1 (+7.9) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | UND 81 – 79 KC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | KC 80 – 69 UND |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UND 76 – 72 KC |
| Feb 10, 2024 | KC 65 – 47 UND |
| Jan 13, 2024 | UND 82 – 69 KC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | KC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 10-6 | 1-15 |
| Home | 9-7 | 3-11 |
| Away | 7-8 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L15 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 84.8 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#289) | -16.0 (#352) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#241) | -3.46 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#270) | -3.95 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#222) | 0.365 (#360) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | KC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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