Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | USM -225 USA +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | USM -10.6 (-6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -9.4 (-5.4) | 137.5 (+10.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -8.0 (-4.0) | 135.5 (+12.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -8.5 (-4.5) | 136.9 (+11.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -9.5 (-5.5) | 136.1 (+11.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | USM 68 – 55 USA |
| Feb 13, 2026 | USA 84 – 78 USM |
| Feb 27, 2025 | USA 88 – 82 USM |
| Jan 16, 2025 | USA 75 – 62 USM |
| Feb 29, 2024 | USA 73 – 70 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | 6.5 (#83) | -0.3 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#64) | -0.65 (#240) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.73 (#68) | -0.80 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.584 (#45) | 0.484 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 7.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 20.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 13.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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