Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -450 OMA +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +23 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -9.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -7.7 (+15.3) | 139.5 (+5.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -11.1 (+11.9) | 140.2 (+4.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -8.1 (+14.9) | 139.8 (+5.2) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -8.0 (+15.0) | 140.2 (+4.8) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OMA 80 – 71 SDST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SDST 84 – 69 OMA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | SDST 98 – 85 OMA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OMA 87 – 80 SDST |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SDST 85 – 77 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-2 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -1.4 (#203) | -7.1 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#143) | -0.65 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#170) | -0.98 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.546 (#99) | 0.474 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 19.7% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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