Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | OMA +160 SDST -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +7 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -4.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.2 (+16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -4.3 (+11.3) | 146.8 (+20.2) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -2.3 (+9.3) | 148.9 (+18.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -2.6 (+9.6) | 150.1 (+16.9) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -2.9 (+9.9) | 150.2 (+16.8) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OMA 80 – 71 SDST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SDST 84 – 69 OMA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | SDST 98 – 85 OMA |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SDST 85 – 77 OMA |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SDST 90 – 87 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 11-5 |
| Home | 11-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#225) | 4.7 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#225) | 0.34 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#238) | 0.79 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.461 (#243) | 0.509 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 79.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.7% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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