Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -400 OMA +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +13 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -10.4 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+29.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -9.9 (+3.1) | 152.3 (+30.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -10.2 (+2.8) | 151.3 (+31.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -10.4 (+2.6) | 151.6 (+31.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -10.1 (+2.9) | 152.1 (+30.9) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OMA 80 – 71 SDST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SDST 84 – 69 OMA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OMA 87 – 80 SDST |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SDST 85 – 77 OMA |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SDST 90 – 87 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 13-3 |
| Home | 13-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.0 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#93) | -1.8 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#143) | -0.07 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#127) | -0.35 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#136) | 0.501 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 40.1 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.8% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 77.9% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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