Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | OMA +120 SDST -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +8 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | OMA -0.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OMA -0.4 (-8.4) | 151.3 (+10.7) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -1.0 (-7.0) | 146.9 (+15.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OMA -0.5 (-8.5) | 148.6 (+13.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OMA -0.2 (-8.2) | 151.1 (+10.9) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OMA 80 – 71 SDST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SDST 84 – 69 OMA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | SDST 98 – 85 OMA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OMA 87 – 80 SDST |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SDST 90 – 87 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#227) | -0.6 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#284) | -0.40 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#255) | -0.38 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#303) | 0.485 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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