Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | OMA +120 SDST -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OMA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OMA +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -3.1 (+12.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.1 (-0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -2.1 (+11.1) | 143.9 (+7.1) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -1.2 (+10.2) | 144.0 (+7.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -1.5 (+10.5) | 145.5 (+5.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -1.4 (+10.4) | 145.5 (+5.5) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | SDST 84 – 69 OMA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | SDST 98 – 85 OMA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OMA 87 – 80 SDST |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SDST 85 – 77 OMA |
| Jan 19, 2024 | SDST 90 – 87 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OMA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -5.9 (#256) | 0.4 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#284) | -0.69 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#274) | -0.62 (#214) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#291) | 0.469 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OMA | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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