Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -600 OMA +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +3 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -7.6 (-4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+27.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -4.5 (-1.5) | 146.7 (+30.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -6.7 (-3.7) | 145.0 (+32.0) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -4.9 (-1.9) | 147.1 (+29.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -5.2 (-2.2) | 147.8 (+29.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | OMA 80 – 71 SDST |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SDST 84 – 69 OMA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | SDST 98 – 85 OMA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | OMA 87 – 80 SDST |
| Feb 18, 2024 | SDST 85 – 77 OMA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 7-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 72.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 74.7 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#162) | -3.5 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#185) | -1.00 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.20 (#194) | -1.02 (#251) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#175) | 0.434 (#289) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | OMA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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