Betting Lines
| Spread | CP -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | CP -163 UCSD +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSD +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | CP -4.6 (-11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -2.3 (-9.3) | 127.2 (+7.8) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -1.6 (-8.6) | 125.4 (+9.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -1.6 (-8.6) | 127.0 (+8.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CP -2.5 (-9.5) | 127.1 (+7.9) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 69 CP |
| Mar 1, 2026 | UCSD 80 – 64 CP |
| Jan 2, 2026 | CP 67 – 65 UCSD |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UCSD 81 – 67 CP |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UCSD 95 – 68 CP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-25 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 1-18 | 5-13 |
| Home | 6-11 | 4-10 |
| Away | 1-13 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 59.4 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#274) | -7.0 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#293) | -1.15 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#281) | -1.61 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#319) | 0.455 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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