Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -188 RGV +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +12 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -4.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+9.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -1.8 (+10.2) | 145.2 (+12.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -2.9 (+9.1) | 143.6 (+14.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -1.4 (+10.6) | 145.0 (+13.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -1.9 (+10.1) | 145.3 (+12.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2025 | UTA 58 – 50 RGV |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UTA 89 – 70 RGV |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UTA 91 – 73 RGV |
| Feb 10, 2023 | UTA 64 – 58 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-8 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.9 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#261) | -6.4 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#277) | -0.36 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#264) | -0.62 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#254) | 0.487 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.0% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 27.2% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.4% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 22.1% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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