Betting Lines
| Spread | RGV -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | RGV -138 UTA +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +6 | 122 | Lost |
| Massey | RGV -3.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.1 (-25.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RGV -1.4 (-7.4) | 139.8 (-17.8) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RGV -2.3 (-8.3) | 142.9 (-20.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | RGV -2.4 (-8.4) | 143.8 (-21.8) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RGV -1.5 (-7.5) | 141.6 (-19.6) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2025 | UTA 58 – 50 RGV |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UTA 89 – 70 RGV |
| Jan 19, 2024 | UTA 91 – 73 RGV |
| Jan 20, 2023 | UTA 85 – 73 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 62.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.2 | 70.0 |
| Massey | -5.4 (#262) | -5.3 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#206) | -0.98 (#271) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#220) | -1.09 (#261) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#212) | 0.450 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 44.3% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 33.6% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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