Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -600 RGV +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +18 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -11.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -9.0 (+9.0) | 154.9 (+9.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -9.0 (+9.0) | 153.6 (+10.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -8.6 (+9.4) | 153.7 (+10.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -9.3 (+8.7) | 155.2 (+8.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 12, 2025 | UTA 58 – 50 RGV |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UTA 89 – 70 RGV |
| Feb 10, 2023 | UTA 64 – 58 RGV |
| Jan 20, 2023 | UTA 85 – 73 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 2-18 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 5-10 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 80.7 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#191) | -9.0 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#200) | -1.41 (#297) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#191) | -2.25 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#172) | 0.427 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 33.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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