Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | NKU -188 CLE +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +1 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -0.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -0.0 (+1.0) | 131.7 (-18.7) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -0.1 (+1.1) | 130.6 (-17.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -0.2 (+0.8) | 131.0 (-18.0) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -0.2 (+0.8) | 132.4 (-19.4) | 46% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NKU 81 – 70 CLE |
| Dec 4, 2025 | NKU 95 – 80 CLE |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CLE 68 – 63 NKU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | NKU 85 – 75 CLE |
| Jan 16, 2025 | CLE 76 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 69.2 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#227) | 1.3 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#194) | 0.13 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.05 (#183) | 0.20 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#193) | 0.489 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.5% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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