Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -1200 CLE +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +15 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -17.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -13.9 (+1.1) | 148.8 (+26.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -11.6 (+3.4) | 155.2 (+19.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -12.0 (+3.0) | 153.3 (+21.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -13.4 (+1.6) | 150.7 (+24.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NKU 81 – 70 CLE |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CLE 68 – 63 NKU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | NKU 85 – 75 CLE |
| Jan 16, 2025 | CLE 76 – 58 NKU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NKU 75 – 73 CLE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-5 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 88.6 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#166) | -12.6 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#108) | -2.91 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#144) | -4.53 (#346) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#102) | 0.415 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 31.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 60.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.5% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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