Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | CLE -210 NKU +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +18 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -5.0 (+13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -5.5 (+12.5) | 136.0 (-2.0) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -4.3 (+13.7) | 134.9 (-0.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -5.4 (+12.6) | 135.3 (-1.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -5.4 (+12.6) | 135.9 (-1.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NKU 81 – 70 CLE |
| Dec 4, 2025 | NKU 95 – 80 CLE |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CLE 68 – 63 NKU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | NKU 85 – 75 CLE |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NKU 75 – 73 CLE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#199) | -3.3 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#141) | -0.66 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#133) | -1.00 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#162) | 0.459 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 65.8% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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