Betting Lines
| Spread | NKU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | NKU -120 CLE +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +2 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | NKU -3.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (+0.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NKU -2.3 (-0.3) | 149.0 (-1.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NKU -2.4 (-0.4) | 146.8 (+1.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NKU -2.4 (-0.4) | 146.3 (+1.7) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NKU -2.4 (-0.4) | 148.4 (-0.4) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NKU 81 – 70 CLE |
| Dec 4, 2025 | NKU 95 – 80 CLE |
| Mar 7, 2025 | CLE 68 – 63 NKU |
| Feb 6, 2025 | NKU 85 – 75 CLE |
| Jan 16, 2025 | CLE 76 – 58 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NKU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-11 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#193) | -1.6 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#207) | -0.07 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#205) | -0.26 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#188) | 0.504 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NKU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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