Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | CLE -195 NKU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +5 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -6.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (-3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -4.7 (+0.3) | 138.8 (-7.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -4.6 (+0.4) | 136.8 (-5.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -4.3 (+0.7) | 136.4 (-5.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -4.2 (+0.8) | 139.5 (-8.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | NKU 81 – 70 CLE |
| Dec 4, 2025 | NKU 95 – 80 CLE |
| Feb 6, 2025 | NKU 85 – 75 CLE |
| Jan 16, 2025 | CLE 76 – 58 NKU |
| Feb 23, 2024 | NKU 75 – 73 CLE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.3 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#170) | -3.6 (#226) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#157) | -0.34 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.27 (#149) | -0.55 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#158) | 0.503 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.4% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.5% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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