I'll write on your tombstone, "I thank you for dinner." "Bungle in the Jungle" - Jethro Tull
Sun Belt Conference · Hanner Fieldhouse · January 20, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread GASO -8.5 Away covered
O/U 133.5 Under
Money GASO -350 / ULM +350
Model Predictions
Spread Total GASO win
Actual ULM +13 131 Lost
Massey GASO -9.8 (-22.8) — —
Massey Totals — 131.8 (-0.8) —
Bradley-Terry — — 82% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 84% ✗
Baseline Plus ML GASO -7.2 (-20.2) 136.0 (-5.0) 76% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ GASO -5.8 (-18.8) 134.9 (-3.9) 72% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML GASO -6.6 (-19.6) 137.1 (-6.1) 76% ✗
Baseline ML GASO -6.4 (-19.4) 137.1 (-6.1) 72% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 30, 2026 GASO 79 – 76 ULM
Jan 3, 2025 GASO 90 – 82 ULM
Jan 6, 2024 GASO 76 – 68 ULM
Mar 3, 2023 GASO 66 – 57 ULM
Feb 26, 2022 GASO 81 – 75 ULM

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GASO ULM
Overall 17-16 11-21
Conference 9-9 7-11
Home 12-4 7-8
Away 3-11 4-10
Neutral 2-1 0-3
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L8
Avg Pts For 67.1 63.4
Avg Pts Against 68.3 71.5
Massey -2.1 (#215) -8.1 (#309)
Bradley-Terry -0.05 (#183) -0.91 (#267)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.15 (#189) -1.07 (#257)
RPI 0.502 (#174) 0.452 (#270)
Shooting & Four Factors GASO ULM
FG% 43.8% 40.2%
3PT% 28.6% 32.6%
REB / G 34.0 31.3
OREB / G 9.4 9.7
AST / TO 0.91 0.96
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.6% 45.9%
TOV% 15.9% 19.3%
ORB% 26.4% 27.4%
FT Rate 16.2% 22.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.7% 51.8%
Opp TOV% 18.9% 20.3%
DRB% 74.9% 64.7%
Opp FT Rate 23.4% 21.8%

Game Analysis

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