Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +3 | 155 | Lost |
| Massey | GASO -12.2 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -11.5 (+8.5) | 157.9 (-2.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -9.9 (+6.9) | 157.6 (-2.6) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -10.2 (+7.2) | 154.2 (+0.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -10.5 (+7.5) | 154.4 (+0.6) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 3, 2025 | GASO 90 – 82 ULM |
| Jan 6, 2024 | GASO 76 – 68 ULM |
| Mar 3, 2023 | GASO 66 – 57 ULM |
| Jan 20, 2023 | ULM 72 – 59 GASO |
| Feb 26, 2022 | GASO 81 – 75 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 3-10 | 9-5 |
| Away | 1-15 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.4 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -17.6 (#359) | -5.5 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.21 (#364) | -0.47 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.51 (#364) | -1.02 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#362) | 0.463 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 22.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 29.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 63.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 29.5% |
Game Analysis
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