Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | LR +110 TNTC -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +2 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | TNTC -1.0 (-1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.7 (+2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -2.1 (+0.1) | 147.0 (+5.0) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -1.7 (-0.3) | 145.2 (+6.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -2.6 (+0.6) | 146.2 (+5.8) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -1.8 (-0.2) | 145.4 (+6.6) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TNTC 87 – 77 LR |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LR 77 – 58 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LR 79 – 75 TNTC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LR 77 – 71 TNTC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LR 81 – 43 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-5 |
| Away | 2-16 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -11.4 (#344) | -6.7 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#350) | -1.52 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.07 (#352) | -1.85 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.345 (#360) | 0.427 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 16.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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