Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LR -1200 TNTC +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +38 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | LR -11.8 (+26.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-22.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -11.6 (+26.4) | 144.6 (-20.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -10.7 (+27.3) | 143.3 (-19.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -12.1 (+25.9) | 141.8 (-17.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -10.9 (+27.1) | 142.7 (-18.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TNTC 87 – 77 LR |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LR 77 – 58 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LR 79 – 75 TNTC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LR 77 – 71 TNTC |
| Dec 29, 2023 | LR 81 – 75 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#211) | -11.1 (#328) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#228) | -1.97 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#229) | -2.26 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#234) | 0.419 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 30.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 6.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 18.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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