Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | LR -118 TNTC -102 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +19 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -3.2 (+22.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.4 (-12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -4.4 (+23.4) | 141.3 (-6.3) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -1.2 (+20.2) | 140.2 (-5.2) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -3.5 (+22.5) | 142.3 (-7.3) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -2.4 (+21.4) | 143.7 (-8.7) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TNTC 87 – 77 LR |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LR 79 – 75 TNTC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LR 77 – 71 TNTC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LR 81 – 43 TNTC |
| Dec 29, 2023 | LR 81 – 75 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -13.7 (#341) | -6.6 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.14 (#328) | -0.96 (#251) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.89 (#326) | -1.29 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#343) | 0.450 (#269) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 23.4% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 17.0% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 64.6% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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