Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC +110 LR -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +6 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | TNTC -0.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.2 (-0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -0.5 (-6.5) | 150.5 (+5.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -1.2 (-7.2) | 149.1 (+6.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -0.9 (-6.9) | 149.8 (+6.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -0.7 (-6.7) | 152.3 (+3.7) | 56% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TNTC 87 – 77 LR |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LR 77 – 58 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LR 79 – 75 TNTC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LR 77 – 71 TNTC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LR 81 – 43 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-8 | 14-4 |
| Away | 3-13 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -9.9 (#327) | -5.6 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#284) | -1.28 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.87 (#294) | -1.56 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#284) | 0.401 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 5.9 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 17.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 31.5% |
Game Analysis
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