Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | LR -360 TNTC +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +4 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | LR -7.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+21.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -5.9 (-1.9) | 134.4 (+19.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -7.6 (-3.6) | 135.2 (+18.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -5.6 (-1.6) | 131.5 (+22.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -6.3 (-2.3) | 132.7 (+21.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TNTC 87 – 77 LR |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LR 77 – 58 TNTC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LR 77 – 71 TNTC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LR 81 – 43 TNTC |
| Dec 29, 2023 | LR 81 – 75 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 74.1 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#207) | -7.1 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#208) | -1.06 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#218) | -1.64 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#205) | 0.465 (#246) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 16.2% |
Game Analysis
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