Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC +114 LR -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNTC +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | TNTC -0.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -0.7 (+10.7) | 138.0 (+26.0) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -0.7 (+10.7) | 136.3 (+27.7) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -0.2 (+10.2) | 137.1 (+26.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -0.3 (+10.3) | 137.8 (+26.2) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | LR 77 – 58 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LR 79 – 75 TNTC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LR 77 – 71 TNTC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LR 81 – 43 TNTC |
| Dec 29, 2023 | LR 81 – 75 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-12 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#336) | -9.9 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#335) | -1.11 (#265) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.70 (#335) | -1.62 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#323) | 0.439 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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