Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC +100 LR -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +6 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | TNTC -1.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -0.7 (-6.7) | 134.4 (+13.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -0.5 (-5.5) | 137.4 (+10.6) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -0.0 (-6.0) | 132.5 (+15.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LR -0.0 (-6.0) | 133.4 (+14.6) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TNTC 87 – 77 LR |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LR 77 – 58 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LR 79 – 75 TNTC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LR 81 – 43 TNTC |
| Dec 29, 2023 | LR 81 – 75 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#274) | -4.4 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#278) | -0.22 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#298) | -0.63 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#250) | 0.489 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 63.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.9% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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